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2013 Fantasy Football Start/Sit – Week 15

The fantasy playoffs are here; this is the two most important weeks of the year for any fantasy football owner.  This week you are able to talk down to your fantasy inferiors or it is the week that begins a downward spiral of misery until next fantasy season.  Okay, it may not be that severe, but this is a very important week for anyone with a fantasy football team.

The advice I always give people this week is to play your stars.  This is not the week to try something cute and sit your best running back, because he plays a tough defense.  This is not the week to pickup Minnesota Vikings WR Cordarrelle Patterson and to play him over Cleveland Browns WR Josh Gordon, because Gordon is due for a bad game.  It is not fun to lose in the fantasy playoffs, but I would rather lose with a roster that performed all year and had a bad week than lose with my best players on my bench.

If you are looking for some good fantasy options, here are some players I would recommend starting and staying clear of in Week 15.

Fantasy Football 2012 RB Alfred Morris

The Atlanta Falcons are one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, I look for Washington Redskins RB Alfred Morris to have a big week.

Start of the Week

Washington Redskins RB Alfred Morris – People have been disappointed with Morris this season and I can understand why.  He has not lived up to the fifth ranking that he achieved in his rookie year.  He is not a fantasy bust though, despite playing on a team that is consistently behind, he is the 14th ranked fantasy running back.  He is on pace for 1,264 yards rushing and 7.3 rushing touchdowns.  He would be a viable Top-5 running back, if he had the ability to catch the ball or his team was ever ahead in a game.

This week the Redskins travel to Atlanta and face an Atlanta Falcons team that is incompetent when it comes to stopping the running game.  The Falcons offense is not good enough that the Skins should be down 28 points in the first half.  I think Morris should be in store for a monster week, he should easily top 120 yards rushing and score a rushing touchdown.

Players to Start

Green Bay Packers RB James Starks – It is a little early to tell what is going on in Green Bay, but QB Aaron Rodgers is potentially returning this week and RB Eddie Lacy has an ankle injury and will likely have a questionable tag heading into this game.  If Rodgers and Lacy both play, Lacy is a slam-dunk RB1 against the worst fantasy running back defense in the NFL.  If Lacy cannot play, Starks would have immediate RB2 value, depending on the status of Rodgers.

Philadelphia Eagles WR Riley Cooper – Cooper is a boom / bust WR3 option due to his low targets, but I think we see the good Riley Cooper this week.  The Vikings are allowing the fifth most points to fantasy wide receivers this year.

Carolina Panthers WR Steve Smith – The Panthers passing game is hit or miss, but the Jets have allowed the second most points to fantasy receivers this year. Furthermore, CB Antonio Cromartie suffered a concussion and he may not be able to play this week.  Either way, I think Smith is a safe WR3 option this week.

Philadelphia Eagles QB Nick Foles – Foles threw his first interception of the season last week, but that game was made difficult with snowy conditions.  This week, the Eagles will be playing indoors against a poor Vikings secondary.  Foles is a must start QB1 this week.

San Francisco 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick – The Buccaneers have been one of the worst quarterback defenses in the NFL this year, so I would not change my opinion of them because they did well against the Buffalo Bills.  Kaepernick should be a high QB2 with upside playing the Buccaneers this week.

Tennessee Titans TE Delanie Walker – He should be cleared from his concussion test this week and the Arizona Cardinals await him in Week 15.  There has not been a worse fantasy tight end defense this year, so I would confidently start Walker if he plays this week.

Sit of the Week

Chris Johnson, fantasy football 2012 RB

Sit Tennessee Titans RB Chris Johnson this week, he has a horrible matchup against the Arizona Cardinals.

Tennessee Titans RB Chris Johnson – Johnson has been a major disappointment this year.  With a revamped offensive line, this was supposed to be the season that he returned to being an elite running back.  Johnson is the ninth ranked fantasy running back, but his production has been all over the map.  Similar to last year, he has four games this year where he has averaged less than 3.0 yards per carry.  How that happens to an explosive running back with Johnson’s talent is perplexing.

This week, the Titans host an Arizona Cardinals team that has allowed only 84.5 yards rushing per game and five rushing touchdowns.  It is a horrible matchup for Johnson and I look for him to be a poor flex play this week.

Players to Sit

Buffalo Bills RB C. J. Spiller – Spiller has been one of the most disappointing fantasy players in the NFL.  He ranks 31st among fantasy running backs even though he was a slam-dunk first round pick at the beginning of the season.  I had him ranked second among all fantasy backs and cannot believe the lack of production he has had in Buffalo.  The Jaguars have been a Top-10 fantasy running back defense over the last five weeks, I would not expect Spiller to be anything more than a weak flex play this week.

Arizona Cardinals WR Michael Floyd – The Titans are usually one of the best secondary units in the NFL; I doubt they are torched for a second straight week.  I think WR Larry Fitzgerald will maintain WR3 value with Floyd being a dicey WR3 to WR4.  Floyd is also battling an ankle injury that contributed to him having a pedestrian 26 yards receiving.

New York Giants WR Hakeem Nicks – I do not think either Giants receiver is a compelling play this week.  I would give WR Victor Cruz low WR3 value going against the Hawks secondary.  Nicks is a low WR4 to high WR5 playing against one of the toughest defenses in the NFL.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Mike Glennon – The San Francisco 49ers are allowing the second fewest points to quarterbacks over the last five weeks, so Glennon does not figure to be a good fill-in play this week.  I would leave him on my bench.

New York Giants QB Eli Manning – The perception is that the Seattle Seahawks have not been a very good road team, but Manning has not been a very good quarterback and the Hawks are ranked first against fantasy quarterbacks this year.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers TE Tim Wright – Wright has been and up and down fantasy tight end this year, but I do not expect him to have a good week playing the San Francisco 49ers, who are one of the toughest tight end defenses in the NFL.  Stay clear of Wright if you can this week.

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58 comments

  1. D
    QB question: Cutler or Brady??

    DST Question : I have Tennessee right now but Atlanta is available; which DST should I start?

    Thanks
    F

    • Derek Lofland /

      Franco – Thanks for the question. I’d go with Cutler, but that is a true toss up. Only reason to play Brady would be that Cleveland has some nasty weather. Otherwise, Cutlers skill position players are on fire and he should have a nice game. I would start the Tennessee D, they have a much nicer matchup. Good luck.

  2. Derek, best for for flex . Tony gonzo, harry Douglas, andre Ellington, jordan todman or chris ogbannya? Thanks

    • Derek Lofland /

      Jay – Thanks for the question. I would lean toward Douglas playing against a bad Redskins secondary. Him and Gonzalez are close, but I think Douglas is the better play. Good luck.

  3. Hey guys, thanks to you I am once again in the semifinals and playing for the chance to defend my title in the championship game. So any help with my line up is much appreciated. PPR. I had RGIII so I have had to so some shuffling. I think I’m pretty much set at RB, WR, TE, & K. Having trouble with my flex and OP offensive player utility(QB, RB,or WR). Let me know what you think. Current starter in all caps

    QB: J CAMPBELL, Kirk Cousins; or E Manning, Glennon, and Pryor are available
    Flex: BOBBY RAINEY, H Nicks, S Smith, BJGE, D Moore
    OP: KIRK COUSINS or any player listed by the flex spot above.
    D/St: Ravens or Pats

    Thanks for all your help!!!

    • Derek Lofland /

      Bryan – Thanks for the question. I would go Campbell as well, with the way Gordon is playing, Campbell is a viable QB2 with upside. Great fill in for RGIII. At flex, I would go Rainey. Interesting you can go with a second quarterback at OP, but I would go Cousins there. Like him better than those other three quarterbacks and a fantasy quarterback tends to put up more points than other positions. On defense, I like the Patriots better. Trust them against the Dolphins more than the Ravens on the road against the Lions. Good luck.

  4. back again! i’m fresh out of the bye and ready for the semis. i have demarco and lynch locked in as RB1 & 2. thinking about sitting chris johnson this week, leaving either gio or vereen for my flex. who do you like better? leaning vereen myself but having a tough time deciding. he’s a little more involved in the redzone than gio and actually had a goal line carry. and with gronk out and miami’s corners focusing on edelman/amendola/dobson, i think he’ll have plenty of room to receive in the flat. i’ll end my rant there!

    as for WR, would you consider taking a risk on TY over jordy? rodgers is out again and TY torched texas last time…

    • also – been rolling with hauschka for the last month or so. stick with him @ NY (i live here and it’s snowing out of my window), or go for justin tucker in the dome in detroit?

      • Derek Lofland /

        Phil – Thanks for the question. I would lean toward Tucker. The snow doesn’t bother me as much as the 15 mph winds that they are forecasting for the game. Wind is what always worries me and seeing you have two good options with one kicking in a dome, I would lean Tucker. Good luck.

    • Derek Lofland /

      Phil – Thanks for the question. I would definitely sit CJ1.5K for Vereen. I have Vereen as a RB1 this week. As for receiver, Jordy is a risk with Flynn in there, but given how bad Hilton has played the last few games, I would roll Jordy. It isn’t a crazy decision to go Hilton, but I think Jordy is the better value this week against that Cowboys D. Good luck.

  5. Hi Derek,

    Thanks for all the fantasy advice. I’m a little nervous starting Lacy this week. He could re-injure the ankle, and Starks will probably take away some carries. I can start Stephen Jackson in his place if necessary. What do you think?

    Joe

    • Derek Lofland /

      Joe – Thanks for the question. I have Lacy ranked ahead of Jackson. Lacy looks good to go and the Cowboys won’t have Lee. They are the worst fantasy defense in the NFL at stopping running backs and have given up 490 yards of offense five times. No other team has done it twice. Even with Flynn in there, I think Lacy has a big game. That said, I have Jackson only three spots below Lacy. If you are that nervous about it, Jackson is a great option. If I were you though, I would roll with Lacy. Good luck.

  6. HaveUCNmybaseball? /

    Hey Derek,
    First want to thank you for all the advice you give day in and day out. 4 of my 5 teams made the playoffs and the 1 I didn’t I scored the most points by far but had the worst match ups to subside with that! I have 3 teams in the final 4 and much is credit to your advice, so again thank you!
    Here’s my shitstorm of a dilemma- .5 ppr, first which RB you think will get the most for me- Rainey(projected the most), Bernard, Ridley? Next WRs – hilton, amendola, or k. Wright?
    Thanks as always! Happy holidays!

    • Derek Lofland /

      HaveUCNmybaseball? – Thanks for the question and glad that we could help you out this year. Seeing Rainey hasn’t done anything in bad matchups this year and Bernard has such big play ability, I would lean toward Bernard. It’s a toss up, but I just like Bernard a little better. At receiver, I would go with Kendall Wright. The Colts offense is maddening right now and Amendola has been losing targets to Edelman. I think Wright is the safest play, because the only way the Titans will move the ball is to pass it, they won’t be able to run on that Cards D. Good luck.

  7. Hi Derek,

    Played Matthews last night, need help with 2nd RB in PPR League. Morris, Brown or CJ. Morris has best matchup but the issues in DC are frightening!

    • Derek Lofland /

      Ryan – Thanks for the question. Go with Brown. I love the matchup with Morris and if you were in a standard league, I would go Brown. The problem is Morris offers nothing in PPR and Brown catches at least three passes per game and could catch more with that pass rush as a safety valve. If he catches 6 passes, that is as good as a rushing touchdown or 60 yards. Morris is a safer play, because he should have the yards against the Falcons, but in PPR, I think Brown is the better play. Don’t go with CJ1.5k against the Cards. Good luck.

  8. Hey Derek–since Cutty was named Bears starter for Sunday’s game against Cleveland, does this diminish Alshon Jeffery’s fantasy value in any way–namely having Jay’s ill buddy Brandon Marshall to throw to? Enough to consider subbing red-hot Alshon for AJ Green, who was held in check by the Steelers the first meeting. Steeler/bengals games are pretty down/dirty low scoring. . .Thanks for yo time

    • Derek Lofland /

      Rako30 – Thanks for the question. Jeffery had 218 yards against the Saints with Cutler throwing the ball to him, so I don’t think Cutler not targeting Jeffery will be that big of a concern. Green and Jeffery are both great plays, good problem to have. I have Jeffery 9th and Green 11th, I’d still start Jeffery. Good luck.

  9. Hi Derek.

    Which QB shall I start this week: Cutler, Flacco or Tannehill? Also M. Ryan should become available in two days…
    Which TE: Cameron or Pitta?

    Thanks for you help!

    • Derek Lofland /

      GNatty – Thanks for the question. Of the three you have, I like Cutler the best. If Ryan were to become available, I would start Ryan. I like Cameron, Pitta faces one of the top fantasy tight end defenses in the NFL. Good luck.

  10. Zach roper /

    Hi Derek, needs some playoff advice for rb2. L.miller, Andre brown or p. Thomas. Would also like to know if I should stick one of them in the flex position instead of playing two TE J.thomas at te1 and Jordan Cameron at flex. Thanks

    • Derek Lofland /

      Zach Roper – Thanks for the question. I wouldn’t play Miller against the Patriots, I have Brown a few spots ahead of Thomas. I have Thomas 55th and Cameron 59th in my flex rankings. You wouldn’t be crazy to play Cameron over Thomas, I have Thomas a little higher than other experts, because the Rams are 28th against running backs this year. They’ve been playing a little better than that as of late, but I think Thomas has good flex value against the Rams. Good luck.

  11. Hello- I can’t decide which running back to play: Andre Brown, Woodhead, Steven Jackson or Lacy. Also, how do you think Pitta will do?

    Thank you!

    • Derek Lofland /

      Keekee – Thanks for the question. I’d be hard pressed to sit Lacy against the worst fantasy running back defense in the NFL. I would play Lacy, even if Rodgers is not active. If for some reason Lacy has a setback in practice and cannot go, I would then turn to Jackson playing a bad Redskins D. I’m not a huge Pitta fan this week. The Lions allow the fourth fewest points to tight ends on the season and the fewest over the last 5 weeks. Pitta is a TE2 with little upside in that matchup. Good luck.

  12. 12 Team PPR, 1st round of playoffs. We start 1 QB, 2 WR, 2 RB, 1 TE, 2 Flex. Who would you start? Wilson, Rivers, AJ Green, Antonio Brown, Torrey, Crabtree, R Bush, Spiller, Woodhead, Andre Brown, Ellington, Todman, Fleener, Walker.
    Thanks!

    • Derek Lofland /

      Norman – Thanks for the question. I would go with Rivers as your quarterback. At receiver, I would go with Green and Brown. At running back, I would go Andre Brown and Ellington. At tight end, I like Walker against the Cards. At one flex I would go with Torrey Smith and at the other I would go with Woodhead. The reason I don’t like Bush this week is that his calf is a mess and he plays Monday Night. If you had Joique Bell, you could just plug in the starter on Monday. I think it is too risky to play him. I hate Spiller’s matchup and Spiller has not done well against tough matchups this year. Toddman could be a good option if MJD doesn’t play, but that is shaping up to be a gametime decision. Good luck.

  13. I have top seed (11-3) in playoffs. Need help more than ever.
    Stafford or Rivers at QB?
    Need 2 rbs out of Murray, L. Bell,Stacy, Bernard, Jennings
    then 2 wideouts from A Johnson, Cruz, K. Allen,Boyjin
    1 TE from Witten and Pettigrew
    1 Flex from those RB WR TE
    2 LBs from D’Qwell Jackson, Dansby and Timmons.

    • Derek Lofland /

      John – Thanks for the question. Both QBs are QB1 plays this week, I’d lean Rivers. At running back, I’d go with Murray and Stacy. At receiver, I would go with Johnson and Allen. At tight end, go with Witten. At the flex, it’s a toss up between Jennings and Bell. Given how tough the Bengals have been against the run with the Chiefs not being very impressive, I would lean Jennings. They are both RB2 plays this week. Good luck.

  14. Fantasy Dr X /

    Consolation playoffs standard league now:
    Luck or eli?
    2 RBs: Charles, Jennings,Mendenhall, Reece, BJGE?
    2 WRs: Cruz, Floyd, Douglas, Boykin, royal?
    1 Flex out of those R-W.

    • Derek Lofland /

      Dr X – I would go with Charles and Jennings at my backs. At receiver, I would go with Douglas and Cruz. At flex, I would go with Mendenhall in a nice matchup against Tennessee. Good luck.

  15. Fantasy Dr X /

    Hi there consolation playoffs PPR league:
    Luck, Eli at QB?
    2 RBs: Gore, Brown, Mathews, Rainey, spiller
    2 WRs: DJax, Fitz, Colston
    1 TE: V Davis or Gates?
    1 R-W-T out of all of the above

    • Derek Lofland /

      Dr X – Thanks for the question. I don’t think Eli is playable against the Hawks, I’d go with Luck. At running back, I would go with Gore and Matthews. At receiver, I would go Jackson and Fitz. At tight end,, go with Davis. Flex is a toss up to me between Brown and Gates. The Hawks D is so tough right now, I would lean going with Gates at the flex. I’m not buying into Colston’s breakout game and the Saints offense isn’t as good on the road as they are at home. Good luck.

  16. Which two receivers to start–Gordon, Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, or decker. Also need a defense, I have the steelers and the texans, do I play one of them or do I pickup one of the following available defenses, the colts, eagles, titans, jaguars, Atlanta, Miami, or the packers. It’s our first round of the playoffs and need a win bad.
    Thanks, Joe

    • Derek Lofland /

      Joe – Thanks for the question. Great receiver problem, the way Gordon and Decker are playing, I couldn’t sit either of them. On defense, the Texans and Steelers don’t score very well. I like how the Eagles are playing and love that matchup with Minnesota with Peterson out. Good luck.

  17. I have 3 questions for week 15..

    Do I start Rivers or Newton ??
    V.Davis or Witten ??
    Garcon , T. Hylton or Colston ???

    thx

    • Derek Lofland /

      Paul K – Thanks for the question. Both QB1 plays, I would lean Newton. At tight end, both TE1 plays, I would lean Davis. At receiver, I still like Garcon, even with Cousins in there. Good luck.

  18. brad johnson /

    ppr league which 5 would you start stacy tate gio fitz jordy vjax julius ? thanks

    • Derek Lofland /

      Brad Johnson – Thanks for the question. I would not go with Jordy, unless Rodgers is cleared to play. The other one is a toss up to me between Gio and V Jax. I would lean to sitting Gio against the Steelers tough D with the Law firm getting so many carries. So, if Rodgers plays, I would go Stacy, Tate, Fitz, Jordy and Julius. If Flynn plays, I would sub in V Jax for Nelson. Good luck.

  19. Hi Derek, should I stick with Andre brown against the hawks or roll the dice with Ryan Mathews ?
    Or am I over thinking it ? I’m also thinking of starting Ben Tate and L Bell at flex.
    Many thanks, Martin.

    • Derek Lofland /

      Martin – Thanks for the question. I have Matthews 17th and Brown 18th, although I have Matthews a few slots higher than most experts and Brown several slots lower. Hawks are 5th against fantasy backs over the last five weeks, so I don’t think you are over thinking that at all. I would lean Matthews, but its a toss up. Tate and Bell are both good RB2 options, so love them at flex. Also have them ranked higher than Brown. Good luck.

  20. Gladiator /

    Derek:
    Phew – made it to the playoffs!!!! Thanks to you.
    Eagles or Jags or Bears DST for this week?
    Also dropping Griffin III – who should I pick up as back up for week 16 – Fitzpatrick (playing Jags) or Cousins (playing DAL) or Campbell (vs. Jets)? Luck is my QB right now but is playing KC in week 16 if I make it to the finals.

    • Derek Lofland /

      Gladiator – Thanks for the question and congrats. I like the Eagles playing the Vikings, who should be without Peterson. I’ve always liked Cousins and given that the Cowboys play horrible on the road, I would go with Cousins. The other two should be available should Shanahan get fired in the meantime and the interim coach goes back to RGIII. Good luck.

  21. Derek, Round 2 of the playoffs, thanks for the help so far. Should i sit vjax vs san fran in favor of harry douglas vs wash? Also flex between vjax, douglas or ellington? novak or crosby? def/st buffalo, philly or new orleans? Thanks

    • Would you play Todman (if he starts) over ellington or douglas?

      • Derek Lofland /

        Jason – I don’t think so. It’s a great matchup, but I think Douglas is the safest of the three and Ellington has the most boom potential. It’s between those two depending on what you think you need to win this week.

    • Or even Atlanta def vs skins and Kirk ?

      • Derek Lofland /

        Jason – I wouldn’t do that, Cousins has looked competent when he has played and the Falcons D is terrible. I’d stick withy Philly.

    • I guess i should ask Vernon Davis or Tony Gonzo also.Gonzo has a better matchup, but how can i sit Davis

      • Derek Lofland /

        Jason – Both good options, but I would stay with Davis. Too good to sit with double digit touchdowns. Good luck.

    • Derek Lofland /

      Jason – Thanks for the question. I’d stick with Jackson. If White had not reemerged, than I might consider Douglas. I’d rather have Jackson at this point. That leaves Douglas or Ellington for the flex. Ellington has a great matchup, Douglas is the more certain player. If you think you need a homerun to win, I’d go Ellington. If you just need safe points to advance, go with Douglas. Kicker, I would go with Crosby. On defense, I really like Philly, although all three of those Ds are ranked as D1 plays this week. Good luck.

  22. Mike Pesarchick /

    Hey Derek: you’ve been really helpful throughout the year, thank you. This weeks huge for me, so I want a powerful team. Do I play:

    Romo or Rodgers (if he returns)

    Shane Vareen or LeVon Bell

    Mike Wallace or Pierre Garçon

    Everyone else is locked in as my studs. Thanks for your help Derek.

    • Mike Pesarchick /

      Oh, I also just grabbed Keenan Allen. So it’s between him, Pierre Garçon, and Mike Wallace for the wr3 spot. The one and two spots go to Dez Bryant and Brandon marshal.

      • Derek Lofland /

        Mike Pesarchick – Now that you have Allen, I would play him over Garcon. I have Allen ranked 4 spots higher. Good luck.

    • Derek Lofland /

      Mike Pesarchick – Thanks for the question and I’m glad that you like the site. I would play Romo, Rodgers should be playing if you have been using the waiver wire to find quarterbacks. With someone like Romo, I would go with the more certain player, which is Romo. At running back, I love Vereen this week. Bell is a good play too, but like the matchup against Miami better. At receiver, I’d go with Garcon. Cousins is a good enough quarterback to keep Garcon’s stock from crashing and Wallace is so hit or miss. Garcon is a safer play. Good luck.

  23. Hi Derek,

    Who would you start at QB…Rivers or McCown/Cutler? Also, who would you start at flex…Keenan Allen or Stephen Jackson?

    Thanks,

    Joe

    • Derek Lofland /

      Joe – Thanks for the question. I would go with Rivers. Once the Bears name a starter, I may rethink that, but Rivers has been playing well and Denver doesn’t stop the pass well. I would start Jackson, although I only have him 2 spots ahead of Allen. Close call, but Skins D has been so bad lately, that it would be hard for me to sit Jackson. Good luck.

  24. 2 questions for you this week.

    You have Rodgers and Foles both as obvious starts this week. If Rodgers does play who has the higher upside?

    Then you have Morris as a slam dunk. How about his opponent S-Jax. Would you consider S-Jax over Morris? Is the WAS run D any better then ATL’s?

    • Derek Lofland /

      Rolo – Thanks for the question. I like Rodgers’ matchup, but given how well Foles has been playing and the Vikings D he plays, I would go Foles. Rodgers is risky not having played in a month. As for your backs, both run defenses are awful. I have Morris 8th and Jackson 13th. Think Morris will see more touches than Jackson. Good luck.

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